Bangladesh's exports to US may drop by 14% in 2026 over tariffs: Study
Bangladesh's exports to the United States may decline by up to 14 per cent, or nearly $1.25 billion, over the next year due to the recently-imposed 20-per cent reciprocal tariff, a study by the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID) revealed.
Apparel exports alone may lose around $1.08 billion, RAPID chairman Mohammad Abdur Razzaque said during a presentation at a recent workshop in Dhaka.
"Overall, US imports of apparel will fall by $10 billion, and this shrinking market will make any export growth very difficult," he was quoted as saying by domestic media reports.
He added that although Bangladesh faces lower tariffs than major competitors such as India and China, expanding exports remains challenging.
China's exports to the United States may fall by 58 per cent, India's by 48 per cent, Vietnam's by 28 per cent and Indonesia's by 27 per cent, Razzaque said.
The equation could shift further against Bangladesh if India manages to secure a trade deal that reduces its reciprocal tariff by 20 per cent. In that case, Bangladesh's export decline could deepen to 17.46 per cent, while India's would ease to 18.33 per cent, he cautioned.
According to Razzaque, the long-term impact will depend on several factors, including US inflation, possible policy reversals, shifts in global sourcing and Bangladesh's ability to adapt to the changing trade environment.
