Muted air cargo peak season activity signals weaker H2
While spot rates are still significantly higher year over year — with prices up 41% in May and 38% in June — rates have started to swing backwards as expected, van de Wouw said. However, with the Iran war continuing to drive oil and fuel volatility, the decline will “be taken in small steps, not the big jumps shippers endured on the way up.”
“Airlines will be fighting tooth and nail to avoid reducing rates as quickly as they went up,” van de Wouw said. “It’s not in their interests to lower rates quickly, but there is some relief for shippers with the market on a downward trajectory year-on-year.”
July By the numbers
Meanwhile, air cargo demand saw a 4% year-over-year increase in July, which is less than the 8% year-over-year increase posted in June.
Artificial intelligence-related goods continue to fuel demand on the Transpacific trade lane, Xeneta reported. Spot rates from Northeast and Southeast Asia to North America were both 33% higher than late February. While still elevated, the increase is still relatively lower than the levels recorded in June.
However, many market factors are still at play for the second half of the year. Last month, for instance, Xeneta noted that AI-related goods will continue to drive Transpacific demand, while the Iran war continues to impact ocean shipping capacity, boosting air cargo activity. Further, elevated inventory due to shipper frontloading on the ocean side may dampen air cargo demand in the months ahead.
“The air freight market twists and turns of 2026 may still bring more surprises,” van de Wouw said.
