Weathering the storm: Navigating shipping in a changing global order
As the global economy undergoes seismic shifts, industries that have long operated quietly in the background are being thrust into the spotlight. Among them, shipping—a sector responsible for moving 80 per cent of global trade—finds itself at the crossroads of geopolitics, climate action, and technological disruption. Speaking at the 60th edition of Nor-Shipping in Oslo, Claire Louise Perry O’Neill, the former UK Energy Minister offered a wide-ranging reflection on what lies ahead for the maritime world in this “messier, politically charged, and increasingly protectionist” global order.
An Industry hidden in plain sight
Despite its immense contribution to the global economy—both in GDP and strategic value—shipping has often suffered from limited visibility in public and policy discourse. “Few people understand the true complexity or reach of this industry,” the Minister remarked. “We see photos when things go wrong—like grounded ships or maritime collisions—but rarely do we grasp the sheer scale of the value created.”
The shipping industry, unlike many others, must make investment decisions for assets with multi-decade lifespans. Ships built today will likely still be operating in 2045, possibly even 2070. These long timelines demand predictability, yet global politics is anything but predictable.
“Countries like Norway, Singapore, Greece, and China do understand this and actively prioritize maritime strategy. But many others fail to look beyond their coastlines.”
This strategic oversight becomes even more dangerous in a world where economic resilience, energy security, and supply chain sovereignty are becoming defining themes.
Trump, tariffs, and the new trade terrain
Much of the Minister’s address focused on the evolving role of tariffs and the broader de-globalization trend, using the return of Donald Trump to office as a symbol of systemic change. “We’ve moved beyond using tariffs as mere negotiating tools. Today, they are permanent instruments of industrial policy—used to reward domestic production and raise revenue.”
The former minister argued that the US’s current approach reflects a ‘nation-first’ strategy, one that many other powers—from China to Saudi Arabia to India—have long practiced. “Even under President Biden, we saw hawkish China policies and continued trade barriers. So this is not just about personalities. It’s a structural change.”
The impact on shipping is direct and deep: shifting trade routes, fractured global alliances, and increased uncertainty in freight flows. The rise of “dark” and “grey” fleets—unregulated vessels operating outside mainstream maritime governance—is also part of this changing landscape. With Panama recently delisting a number of vessels and greater scrutiny on sanctioned cargo, the shipping world is facing both new risks and new forms of enforcement.
Resilience amid global chaos
Despite these headwinds, shipping has proven to be an industry of resilience. Over the past 15 years, it has survived the global financial crisis, Brexit, Covid-19, the closure of key maritime routes like the Red Sea, and now rising geopolitical tensions. “You continue to grow. Not always steadily, but consistently.”
Yet, the industry must remain aware that the forces shaping global growth are also evolving. While Western economies may seem sluggish, countries like India and those across Africa are booming. India alone is forecast to grow at over 8 per cent annually. Demographics, urbanisation, and infrastructure investments—particularly in the Global South—are reshaping long-term demand patterns.
“So are we headed for a recession? Not necessarily. Global economic fundamentals remain sound—barring a major black swan event.”
Three structural forces redefining shipping
1. The energy transition & LNG’s rising profile
The global energy transition was a major focus, particularly the stubborn persistence of fossil fuels. Despite two decades of climate advocacy, fossil fuels still made up 80% of global primary energy consumption last year, the highest ever recorded. LNG (liquefied natural gas), in particular, has emerged as a cleaner—but still hydrocarbon-based—bridge fuel.
“The return of oil and LNG into U.S. trade strategy, including in recent Trump-era deals, makes LNG shipping more central than ever,” said the minister. This brings opportunity, especially for gas carriers, but also raises the stakes for sustainable maritime fuel development.
2. The data revolution
Describing data as “the most investable commodity in maritime today,” the former minister emphasized its role in route optimization, compliance monitoring, carbon accounting, and decision support systems. From weather routing to port operations and cargo visibility, the industry’s digital transformation is not just an efficiency tool—it’s a competitive necessity.
Serving on the board of Singapore’s SGX, the minister recounted how data insights now underpin risk management, fuel strategies, and even ESG audits. “This is one of the few areas where we see both strong regulatory backing and private capital interest aligning.”
3. Decarbonisation with a dose of reality
While shipping has often been painted as a climate laggard, the minister credited the sector—particularly Europe—for its proactive stance in decarbonization. “Shipping has stepped up, and the IMO’s new strategy is a clear example of coordinated ambition.”
However, the path ahead is still fraught with questions: Will global carbon pricing frameworks like CORSIA be widely adopted? Will green fuels scale affordably? Can retrofitting and transitional solutions bridge the gap?
“You can’t cheat atmospheric physics. And the Arctic de-icing will affect us all. But the implementation roadmap must be real, not rhetorical.”
A new regional order
The minister also pointed to a dramatic shift in the geography of trade. Intra-Asian trade, for instance, has surged—from 40 per cent of Asian trade in 1990 to 58 per cent in 2022. By 2050, it is expected to hit 70 per cent. This signals a world where regional supply chains dominate over truly global ones.
“Governments are now obsessed with self-sufficiency. But while they may try to localize production, true decoupling isn’t practical,” said the minister. Instead, many companies will pivot to supply chain resilience through diversification, not repatriation.
Raising Maritime’s political voice
As a closing message, the Minister issued a call for stronger industry-government collaboration. For too long, the shipping industry has operated in isolation—content to “just get on with it,” avoiding political entanglements. But in today’s world, policy shapes everything—from cargo flows to financing, compliance, and competitiveness.
“Political decisions don’t just impact shipping. They impact the world’s ability to feed itself, power itself, and grow.”
This makes maritime advocacy more important than ever. Shipping must not only speak up—but speak with clarity, unity, and foresight. “Whether it’s over green premiums, fuel subsidies, port policy, or carbon taxation—your views must be heard.”
Dialogue, not just decarbonisation
While data and decarbonization dominate industry conversations, the Minister added a third “D” that may be even more important: Dialogue. Dialogue between governments and shippers, between shipowners and technology providers, and between regulators and financiers.
“If we want clear skies and calmer waters, we must communicate. Transparency and trust will get us through this choppy near-term journey.”
A call to action
As the Nor-Shipping summit marks 60 years of maritime evolution, the message from the keynote was clear: Shipping cannot be a passive observer in this new world order. It must be proactive, strategic, and loud in championing its relevance.
“In this room of shipping leaders, I see your strength—not just in steel and tonnage—but in your ability to adapt, invest, and navigate. So may I wish you clear horizons, strong winds, and meaningful conversations in the days ahead.”
