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Local garment exporters are expecting a strong rebound in shipments next year, despite a slowdown in exports to the US before the Christmas peak due to higher reciprocal tariffs.
The outgoing year has been marked by uncertainty caused by tariff changes and volatility in the global supply chain. Market conditions began stabilising after the US finalised tariff rates for individual countries in August.
The Trump administration imposed a 20 percent reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi goods in August. Combined with the existing 16.15 percent Most Favoured Nation (MFN) duty, Bangladesh's exports to the US now face a total tariff of 36.15 percent.
Earlier in April, the US had proposed reciprocal tariffs for several countries and introduced a 10 percent baseline tariff for all imports.
During the negotiation period, US-based clothing retailers and brands stocked up on Bangladeshi garments between April and August to benefit from the lower 10 percent tariff.
Because of this early stocking, Bangladesh's garment exports declined in August, September, October, and November, particularly to the US market.
"When store inventories start to shrink after the Christmas sales in December, imports will begin to rise again from January through March," said Faruque Hassan, managing director of Giant Group, a garment exporter.
He added that exports may not rebound immediately but are expected to grow gradually from March. "Clothing sales in the US have also fallen short of earlier forecasts because prices went up following the higher reciprocal tariff," Hassan said.
Hassan also noted that export prices to the European Union (EU) are declining as major exporters — Bangladesh, India, China, Pakistan, and Vietnam — compete in the same market.
"Due to the higher tariff in the US market, most garment-exporting countries have shifted more of their focus to the EU," he said.
MARKET REVIVING AFTER TARIFF IMPACTS
Sharif Zahir, managing director of Ananta Group, echoed Hassan's views. "Our factories are full of work orders from retailers and brands up to June 2026, even though the outgoing year was only stable after the impacts of the reciprocal tariffs," he said.
Tapan Chowdhury, former president of the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA), who also exports garment items, said, "Our company experienced a slowdown in exports because of the reciprocal tariffs. Retailers and brands delayed placing work orders, but now the market is reviving, and they are coming back."
He added that international buyers are closely monitoring Bangladesh's political situation. "The government should hold more interactions with businessmen so that business challenges can be resolved through discussions and by creating a business-friendly environment," Chowdhury, also managing director of Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd, said.
"It was not that healthy," said MA Jabbar, managing director of DBL Group, another garment exporter. "We were suffering from lower work orders. But good days are coming, and business is picking up after the US settled tariff rates with different countries."
Anwar-Ul-Alam Chowdhury (Parvez), former president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said, "Christmas shipments were not that strong in August, September, October, and November.
"However, sales in the US market are expected to pick up during the Christmas season, and demand for Bangladeshi garments in the US should rise afterwards. Buyers are now closely monitoring the Bangladeshi market."
According to Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) data compiled by BGMEA, garment exports to the US grew only 5.14 percent to $2.58 billion during July-October. Apparel exports to the EU increased by 0.46 percent to $6.25 billion in the same period.
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