President Trump on Monday promised the government would pay out $2,000 tariff dividend checks starting around mid-2026.
Why it matters: Putting a timetable on the checks is a significant step forward versus just suggesting the idea, which Trump has done multiple times this year.
But the dividends would require legislation, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last weekend, and it's not clear if Congress has the appetite.
What they're saying: "We're going to be issuing dividends later on, somewhere prior to, you know, probably the middle of next year, a little bit later than that. Thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income," Trump said in remarks to reporters in the Oval Office.
By the numbers: The potential cost of such a tariff dividend could be huge.
If the checks are for individual U.S. citizens and not households, even limiting it to those with low and middle incomes could cost well over $200 billion.
That would be more than the government collected in tariff revenue in fiscal 2025, and about half of what the government is currently pacing to collect in fiscal 2026.
The big picture: The fate of most of Trump's tariffs hangs in the balance, with a Supreme Court decision due in coming months on their legality.
Promising a dividend check has become part of Trump's efforts to frame the case in existential terms. He's recently argued that losing the case could cost the U.S. $3 trillion in refunds and lost investments.
Of note: A tariff dividend in the middle of 2026 would mean the government would be putting a huge check in most voters' pockets on the eve of crucial midterm elections.
Friction point: Such a large and broad distribution could also risk reigniting inflation, as past stimulus checks have done.
The administration is aggressively fighting a growing affordability crisis, arguing that it has inflation under control and will bring prices down next year.
What to watch: The ball would now appear to be in Congress's court, along with other priorities like a new government funding deal and the ongoing Jeffrey Epstein saga.
